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August 28, 2016

The answer lies in the survey result of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies Lokniti (CSDS Lokniti), which is a research programme established in 1997. It houses a cluster of research initiatives that seeks to engage with national and global debates on democratic politics. Electoral patterns and voting behaviour are the key focus areas of Lokniti’s research.

On August 22, 2016, ABP News published results of an opinion poll carried out by CSDS Lokniti. It predicts an assembly in Uttar Pradesh with Samajwadi Party leading (30 percent), Bharatiya Janata Party (27 percent) and Bahujan Samaj Party (26 percent) trailing. Earlier they conducted a survey, which showed the BJP ahead with 32 percent, followed by the BSP and SP.

The big difference in the two surveys is a shift of upper cast vote from BJP to SP. BJP has lost massive vote share compared to Lok Sabha Polls. With 68% of voters claiming that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not brought ‘Achhe Din’ or have no opinion about it. The recent Dalit agitation against the BJP in Gujarat has had its effect, with the vote share from the community going down by 29 percent. The major reason for shifting of vote share is massive development, under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav. One can’t ignore the brilliant work of Lucknow Metro, the success of Skill Development Mission, the speedy construction of roads, greenfield expressway, international cricket stadium, IT city, digital initiatives in the state among others.

To the big surprise, a large loss appears to be coming out, leading to a decline of six to seven percent in OBC vote share. Despite appointing Swami Prasad Maurya and Keshav Prasad Maurya as OBC faces, BJP is still struggling.

Reports say that Amit Shah fuelling communal riots to gain political mileage, needs to get out of maze and needs to announce a CM candidate first. BJP is lagging in leadership ratings for not declaring a chief ministerial candidate. Hence, people have difficulty in naming a leader as the best choice for chief minister.

Another big surprize is a youth survey, which was recently carried out to vet the performance of current government in Uttar Pradesh.

The sample survey was conducted across Uttar Pradesh in which surveyees picked up factors of castes, communities and occupations. A whopping 81% of the surveyees voted in favour of SP, as they want to see Akhilesh Yadav again in CM’s office. On second spot was BSP with 11.5% votes followed by BJP and Congress. From the above analysis, it is clear that a majority of people love Akhilesh Yadav and want to see him again.


Let’s see who will make the big move in bigger 2017 UP elections. Stay connected!

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